Math 114Q, Section 10
First Exam
October 4, 2007
Answers

General guidelines Here are the questions:

  1. (5 points) Read the general guidelines - particularly the first two about the form your answers should take, and the chance to improve your answers over the weekend. Write "I understand the instructions" in your blue book for a free 5 points.

    Answer

    Everyone got 5 points for this but not everyone paid attention to the guidelines. In particular, people spent much unnecessary time looking around for information on the web that they could find right on the exam page, or could figure out faster.

    Some people didn't understand that they could take the exam home and work over the weekend to see if they could do better.

  2. (5 points) The United States was created in 1776. How old is it in seconds? Write your answer in metric terms with the proper prefix - kiloseconds or petaseconds or whatever is appropriate.

    Answer.

    I asked the Google calculator for

    	(2007-1776) years in seconds
    
    and it told me
    	(2007 - 1776) * years = 7.2896499 * 109 seconds
    
    The United States is about 7.3 Gigaseconds old.

    You can also solve this problem by doing the arithmetic yourself:

                   365 days   24 hours   60 minutes   60 seconds
       231 years * -------- * -------- * ---------- * ----------
                     year        day        hour        minute
     
            = 7,284,816,000 seconds ~ 7.3 Gigaseconds
    
    Google's answer and mine differ in the third decimal place because they are more careful than I about the number of days in a year: it's a shade under 365.25, not a simple 365.

  3. (20 points) The item you've found marked $64.99 in Filene's Basement has been on the rack for so long that the Automatic Markdown System tells you it's 50% off. The sticker says "take another 15% off!"

    1. Calculate your savings in dollars and as a percentage of the original marked price.

      Answer.

      The new cost is

      	$64.99 * 0.50 * 0.85 = $27.62075 ~ $27.62
      
      so I save $64.99-$27.62 = $37.38. The percentage savings is $37.38/$64.99 = 0.575 = 57.5%.

      You can also compute the percentage savings without computing the dollar savings first:

         0.85 * 0.5 = 0.425
      
      so you save
         1 - 0.425 = 0.575 = 57.5%.
      

    2. Filene's bought that item from their supplier for $25.00. What is their profit as a percentage of their cost?

      Answer.

      The profit is $27.62 - $25.00 = $2.26. As a percentage of cost that's $2.26/$25.00 = 0.10483 ~ 10%.

    3. What would their profit as a percentage of their cost be if they'd sold the item at the original price?

      Answer

      At the original sales price the profit would have been $64.99 - $25.00 = $39.99. As a percentage of cost that's $39.99/$25.00 = 1.5996 ~ 160%.

      This one's a little tricky. The profit is 160%, not just 60%!

    4. (Extra Credit) What is Filene's Basement's Automatic Markdown System?

      Answer From wikipedia (which seems pretty reliable for this kind of information)

      A description of The Basement's markdown system from a 1982 New York Times article: "... every article is marked with a tag showing the price and the date the article was first put on sale. Twelve days later, if it has not been sold, it is reduced by 25 percent. Six selling days later, it is cut by 50 percent and after an additional six days, it is offered at 75 percent off the original price. After six more days - or a total of 30 - it is not sold, it is given to charity." Since the 1982 article was published the automatic markdown system was changed, giving more time between the discounts. There are now 14 days between each mark-down.
      In fact a lot has changed since 1982 and Filene's Basement no longer offers an Automatic Markdown.

  4. (25 points) The UMass Boston annual operating budget this year is about $237 million (www.umb.edu/administration_finance/budget_office/budget_07.html).
    Student fees are about $3600/year for Massachusetts residents (umb.edu/administration_finance/bursar/tuition_fees.html#u_instate).
    There are about 13,300 students (www.umb.edu/about/)

    1. What percentage of the operating budget is covered by student fees?

      Answer.

      In total, students pay ($3600/student)*(13300 students) = $47,880,000 in fees. That's $47.88 million/$237 million = 0.202025316 ~ 20% of the annual operating budget.

    2. If the annual inflation rate is 4.5%, what will next year's operating budget need to be to offer the same services?

      Answer. Next year's operating budget would have to be ($237 million)*1.045 = $247.67 million to offer the same services.

    3. The easiest way for the Chancellor to raise all the extra money is to raise student fees. He knows that would be unpopular (and unfair), so wants to know how much those fees would have to increase before he makes his decision.

      If the total increase in expenditures is to be funded entirely by raising student fees, how much will each student's fees need to go up (give both an absolute answer in dollars and a percentage increase).

      Answer.

      The University will need $247.67 million - $237 million = $10.67 million more next year. Since there are 13,300 students, each will have to pay ($10.67 million)/13,300 = $802 more in fees. That would be an increase of $802/$3600 = 0.222848789 ~ 22%. Student fees would rise to to more than $4400.

      We could have predicted something like this large an increase without doing all the detailed arithmetic. Inflation will cause the budget to go up by 4.5%. Since student fees cover only about a fifth of the budget, they would have to increase by about 5*4.5% = 22% to make up the shortfall.

    4. The answer you've found in (c) depends on several approximations and assumptions. It ignores the fact that some students have fee waivers, some are part time only, that fees for out of state students and graduate students are larger, and that the number of students may be different next year. How reliable is your answer, given these uncertainties? Could you trust it as a basis for deciding whether to cover the budget shortfall just by raising fees, or would you need a more accurate estimate?

      Answer.

      More students next year would make the added burden less. Taking out of state students into account would too. Computing the effect of fee waivers would make the average added burden more. So the answer isn't at all reliable in detail. But the fact that it tells the Chancellor that student fees would have increase by about 20% to make up the needed revenue tells him pretty clearly that he'd better look elsewhere for the money.

  5. (25 points) The Business/Money section of The Boston Globe, Sunday 9/30, carried an article on Power Shifting: charging more for electricity during the day than at night. The article reported on one family's experience with this experiment:
    During the past year, the [Winslows] used just over 20,000 kilowatt-hours of electricity, of which 85% was consumed during off peak hours. Their power shifting saved them $348. ...

    Instead of paying the standard delivery charge of 6.2 cents per kilowatt hour all day long, the Winslows currently pay 13.95 cents from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. weekdays and 3.4 cents from 6:01 p.m. to 8:59 a.m. on weekdays and all day weekends. Because they require a special meter, their fixed monthly customer charge is $9.99 instead of the standard $6.43.

    1. What would the Winslow's electric bill for the year have been if they had not been participating in the experiment?

      Answer

      Here is how I computed the Winslow's bill:

         20,000 kwh * 0.062 $/kwh + 12 months * 6.43 $/month = $1317.16.
      
      But the 20,000 is only approximate so those pennies make no sense. Even the dollars are suspicious. The best way to report this is that it's about $1300 per year.

    2. What was their electric bill?

      Answer

      The off peak electricity cost them

         20,000 kwh * 0.85 * 0.034 $/kwh = $578.
      
      (The 0.85 in that equation represents the fraction of the 20,000 kwh that they used during the off peak hours.) The peak electricity cost them
         20,000 kwh * 0.15 * 0.1395 $/kwh = $418.50.
      
      Their total electric bill was
          $578 + $418.50 + 12*$9.99 = $1116.38
      
      or about $1100.

    3. Do your calculations confirm what the article says about the Winslows' savings?

      Answer

      No. I compute their savings as $1317.16 - $1116.38 = $200.78 ~ $200, which doesn't match the article's claim of $348 in savings. (It's appropriate to use the nonrounded values when taking the difference here since the two computations are probably approximate in the same way.)

      It's hard to imagine why there's a mismatch. Perhaps the electric rates changed during the year and the article only reports what they were at some particular time. But it's clear that the Globe didn't do any arithmetic to check. Perhaps we'll write the author of the article a letter.

  6. (20 points) On July 22, 2007 The New York Times reported that
    In its first 24 hours on sale, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, the seventh and final installment in the wildly popular series by J.K. Rowling that officially went on sale at 12:01 a.m. Saturday, sold a record 8.3 million copies in the United States, according to Scholastic Inc., the book's publisher.

    1. On the average, how many books per minute were sold during that first day?

      Answer. There are 1440 minutes/day (Google told me) so the answer is about (8.3 million books)/day * (1 day)/(1440 minutes). Rather than do the arithmetic, I fooled Google into doing the unit conversion for me in one step. Although Google doesn't know about books/minute, it does know about miles/minute. So I searched for

          8.3 million miles per day in miles per minute
      
      and it told me
          8.3 million (miles per day) = 5763.88889 miles per minute.
      
      So Harry Potter sales were about 6000 books per minute or about 100 books per second for that first record breaking day.

    2. Estimate how many bookstores were selling the book. (There's no single correct numerical answer to this question. Be sure you clearly state the assumptions you make that lead to your estimate.)

      Answer.

      I'll assume all the books were sold in retail stores and that sales continued at a steady pace all through the night and the next day. In fact those aren't reasonable assumptions. The 8.3 million copies probably includes millions that were ordered in advance on the web. And there were probably many hours when the bookstores were closed. But the question doesn't ask me to make good assumptions, just to state the ones I do make. With these assumptions the arithmetic isn't too hard.

      I'll suppose it takes a minute for a sales clerk to ring up a sale. Then to process 6000 books per minute there would have to be 6000 cash registers in use all at the same time. If we estimate two cash registers per bookstore then there would have to be 3000 bookstores.

      For a quick check I Googled "number of bookstores" and found out from www.laalmanac.com/arts/ar15.htm that there were 311 in Los Angeles in 2002. The population of Los Angeles was about 10 million in 2006 (quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/06/06037.html), which is 10/300 = 1/30 ~3% of the population of the United States. So assuming L.A. has just the right share of bookstores, there would be about 300/0.03 = 10,000 bookstores in the United States. That's not close to the 3,000 estimate I made, but it does have the right number of zeroes. It's close enough, given all the assumptions.

    3. (Extra Credit). In Harry Potter's wizard world currency is measured in Galleons, Sickles and Knuts. 1 Galleon = 17 Sickles; 1 Sickle = 29 Knuts.

      Scholastic Books, the publisher of the Harry Potter series in the United States, has issued paperback copies of books that (they claim) Harry Potter used at Hogwarts. The image shows the price of one of these books in dollars and wizard money.

      Use this information to figure out the number of Dollars per Galleon.

      Answer.

      First compute the price in knuts

                      29 knuts
         14 sickles * -------- + 3 knuts = 409 knuts.
                       sickle
      
      There are
         17 sickles   29 knuts    493 knuts
         ---------- * -------- = ----------
          Galleon      sickle      Galleon
      
      so
          $3.99       493 knuts           $
         --------- * ---------- = 4.81 -------
         409 knuts     Galleon         Galleon
      

      The list price of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows is $34.99. How many Galleons is that? (You may write your answer with decimal fractions of a Galleon. No need to convert the fractional part to Sickles and Knuts - but you can if you want to.)

      Answer.

                    1 Galleon
          34.99 $ * --------- = 7.28 Galleons
                      4.81 $
      
      To change the fractional Galleons into sickles:
                         17 sickles
         0.28 Galleons * ---------- = 4.76 sickles.
                          Galleon
      
      To change the fractional sickles to knuts:
                        27 knuts
         0.76 sickles * -------- = 20.52 knuts
                         sickle
      
      So, finally, with some rounding
         $34.99 = 7 Galleons, 4 sickles and 21 knuts.
      

  7. Extra Credit - start this question if you have time. If you don't, work it out at home over the weekend.

    1. How much energy does burning our imported oil generate in a year? Express your answer in metric terms with the proper prefix - gigawatt-hours, or terawatt-hours, or petawatt-hours, or whatever is appropriate.

      Answer

                 kilowatt-hours                 barrels       days
           2000 ----------------- * 10 million -------- * 365 ----
                     barrel                       day         year
                                           watt-hours  
               = 2*103 * 103 * 107  * 365 ------------
                                              year
                            watt-hours
               = 730 * 1013 ----------
                               year
      
                     Petawatt-hours
               = 7.3 --------------
                          year
      
      

    2. The oil we import isn't used primarily to generate electricity. But if it were, how many families like the Winslows (see question 4) would it provide electricity for?

      Answer

                                    1 family
         7.3 Petawatt-hours * --------------------- 
                              20,000 kilowatt-hours
      
           = (7.3/2) * 1015 * 10-4 * 10-3 families
           = 3.65 * 108 families
           ~ 370 million families
      
      Since there are only 303 million people, there aren't 370 million families. That proves that most of the imported oil is used for something besides domestic electricity! Probably transportation.

    3. Estimate how many oil tankers it would take to deliver the 10 million barrels of oil we import each day.

      Answer.

      The hardest part of this problem is figuring out how much oil a tanker can carry. According to www.generalmaritimecorp.com/newgencor5.html

      ULCCs and VLCCs are the largest vessels in the world tanker fleet. They carry cargos of 200,000 dwt or greater. They typically transport oil in long-haul trades mainly from the Arabian Gulf to Western Europe and the United States via the Cape of Good Hope and Asia.
      A dwt is a deadweight ton. Wikipedia says I might as well think of that as an ordinary ton: 2000 pounds or 1000 kilograms (those are close enough to one another for this kind of estimation). The web site www.eppo.go.th/ref/UNIT-OIL.html lists the weights of various kinds of oil. An average seems to be about 8 barrels per ton.

      So, finally

                          1 ton      1 tanker
         107  barrels * ---------- * ------------
                        8 barrels   200,000 tons
      
             = (1/(8*2)) * 107 * 10 -5 tankers
      
             = 0.0625 * 102 tankers 
      
             ~ 6 (huge) tankers
      
      each day can supply our imported oil.