Homework 11
Math 114Q, Section 10

Due in class on Tuesday, December 4.
  1. In this problem, you will look at data about the temperature of the Earth and the concentration of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. You can find the data (and an explanation of the key issues) on the web at www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/indicator8.htm Since these data can only be entered in Excel after a lot of reformatting we've done that job for you, in the Excel file AtmosphericData.xls.

    1. Make a scatter plot of years and CO2 concentrations. Use Excel to find the (linear) trendline and R^2, then find R by taking the square root of R^2. Write a sentence that explains the slope of the trendline ("For every additional year that passes, CO2 concentration ..."). Is this a strong correlation?
    2. Make a scatter plot of year and Global temperature. Use Excel to find the (linear) trendline and R2, then find R by taking the square root of R2. Write a sentence that explains the slope of the trendline. Is this a strong correlation?
    3. Make a scatter plot of Carbon Dioxide concentrations and global atmospheric temperature. Use Excel to find the linear trendline and R2, then find R. Write a sentence that explains the slope of the trendline. Is this a strong correlation?

      Make sure that you format all of these graphs carefully and that your trendlines are clearly labeled.

    4. Use your trendlines for parts a and b to predict the global temperature and the CO2 concentrations in the year 2010.
    5. There is currently a very active debate about global warming, and some groups use these data to argue that global warming is already happening. Find two different opinions on this and summarize them. One should be claiming that global warming is taking place and that there will be significant consequences; the other should take the position that global warming is not a problem or is not happening. See if you can find arguments that actually cite data.
  2. In class we talked about correlation and causation. The important point is that the observation that data is correlated does not mean that there is a causal effect. We will look at an example to illustrate this. Open the Excel spreadsheet TVData.xls. The data there show the life expectancy (the average for men and women) for each country, along with the number of people per tv set.

    1. Which countries have the highest and lowest life expectancy at birth (if you are not sure what life expectancy means, look it up!) Which countries have the highest and lowest number of people per television set?
    2. Make a scatter plot of the data and find the trendline and R-value. Write a sentence that explains the slope of the trendline.
    3. Does a low number of people per television set cause high life expectancy? Would people in countries with low life expectancy live longer if we sent them shiploads of television sets?
    4. Does a high life expectancy cause there to be fewer people per television set? If we improved the life expectancy in a country by providing better medical care would that cause there to be fewer people per television set?
    5. What else could be going on here? Why might high life expectancy be strongly correlated with a low ratio of people per tv set?
  3. Go to www.venganza.org/about/open-letter/ and scroll down to the graph. Describe this graph and explain the statement "...there is a statistically significant inverse relationship between pirates and global temperature." Do you think the shrinking number of pirates really explains global warming?
  4. Download the spreadsheet linearExponential.xls from the November 27 lecture notes. This is the spreadsheet that we worked on in class that day. Use it to answer the following questions by changing the values in the appropriate cells.

    1. Use the spreadsheet to estimate how long would it take (that is, how many years) to double a $1000 investment that earned 7% interest annually? How long would it take to double a $2000 investment at this interest rate? What about a $3000 investment?
    2. Do you see a pattern? Could you use this work to estimate how long it would take any initial investment to double when it earns 7% annually?
    3. How long would it take to double an investment earning 3.5% interest annually? 14% annually? Can you see a pattern in the answers to this question and the last one?
  5. I was shopping for a car recently and came across some interesting offers. One dealer advertised:

    Buy our new model today! Make a $10,000 downpayment and pay only $100 per month for 2 years.

    I kept looking and found another dealer, selling the same car, who offered:

    Buy our new model today! Pay $5000 down, make a monthly payment of $50 for thefirst month, then add $50 to your payment for each additional month that you own the car. After 2 years, the car is yours.
    Finally, the last dealer proposed the curious arrangement:
    Give me $1.00 today and take the car home! Pay 1 penny for the first month. After that, double your payment each month. After 2 years, the car is yours.

    1. Before you do any calculating, which deal appears to be the best one? Explain your thinking.
    2. What would your monthly payment be in the 2nd month if you take the first dealer's offer? The 10th month?
    3. What would your monthly payment be in the 2nd month if you take the second dealer's offer? The 10th month?
    4. What would your monthly payment be in the 2nd month if you take the third dealer's offer? The 10th month?
    5. For each dealer, write an algebraic expression that gives the monthly payment.
    6. Use Excel to calculate what your total payments would be for the 24 months. You can start with linearExponential.xls or build your own spreadsheet from scratch. Set up 4 columns as follows
      	 ---------- payment -----------
        Month  Dealer 1   Dealer 2   Dealer 3
          0	   10,000      5,000       1.00
          1         100         50       0.01
          2
          ...
         24
        total:
      
      Then tell Excel how to fill in the columns to 24 months. Finally, use the SUM function to add up the payments. Format your spreadsheet so that the data fit on one page and then print it to include with your homework.
    7. Using what your calculations tell you to compare the three deals. Which is best? Which worst?