For more information, follow the term paper link on the course home page.

Your letter should be polite, respectful, convincing, not too long and perhaps a little bit humorous (but not sarcastic). Type it and address and date it as a letter to be sent by snail mail.

We will send the best letter or letters to the author, in hopes that he will respond.

1. What is the probability that he gets a hit in his first (official) at bat in a game? (You don't need to know what an official at bat is to answer this question. If you do know then you know I needed to say that.)

2. What is the probability that he gets a hit in his second at bat in a game?

3. What is the probability that he gets a hit in both his first and second at bats? (Think before you write. Remember the class discussion about the probability of head twice when you flip a coin twice.)

4. What is the probability that he gets a hit in neither of his first two at bats?

• From: www.masslottery.com/wherethemoneygoes.html

  Last year the Massachusetts State Lottery distributed over $761 million in Direct Local Aid to the Cities and Towns of the Commonwealth.

• From: www.masslottery.com/about/faq.html

  What happens to the revenue which the Lottery generates from sales?

  Revenue generated from Lottery sales is used for three purposes.

  1. A minimum of 45% of revenues stays in the State Lottery Fund to be paid out in prizes. Currently, the Lottery's prize percentage is over 69%.
  2. A portion of revenues is transferred to the Commonwealth's General Fund for the expenses incurred in administering and operating the Lottery. The administrative and operating expenses of the Lottery are appropriated by the legislature as part of the annual state budget. Operating expenses cannot exceed 15%. Currently, operating expenses are under 8%. These operating expenses include 5.8% in commissions and bonuses paid to the sales agents who sell the tickets and under 2% in administrative expenses due to Lottery operation.
  3. After prizes and expenses, the remaining Lottery revenues (approximately 23%) is transferred to the Local Aid Fund and returned to the cities and towns of the Commonwealth in the form of local aid.

  1. What was the total dollar amount collected by the Lottery Commission last year?

  2. What is the "fair price" for a $5 lottery ticket? That is, what would a $5 lottery ticket cost if all the money collected from ticket sales was returned to ticket holders as prizes.

  3. Draw a pie chart showing how the money collected by the Lottery Commission was distributed among the three categories Prizes, Overhead, Aid to Cities and Towns .

     We will learn how to do this with the Excel spreadsheet soon. If you already know how, you may do it that way now. If you don't, draw your pie chart neatly by hand.

Last year UMass Boston experimented with the plagiarism detection software described at www.turnitin.com/static/plagiarism.html that claims it can identify plagiarism in essays students write. If you were a student last year the software might have looked at the papers you write for some course. We don't know whether UMass Boston bought a license to use this software - we think not, since we haven't heard anything about it.

Suppose that the software can actually detect every cheater and that it's 99% accurate in declaring honest students honest. (We made up these numbers since the company does not advertise them.) Sounds like a pretty good test.

1. Estimate how many papers are submitted by UMass students each semester.

2. Suppose that hardly any of the papers are plagiarised. Estimate how many students will be falsely accused of cheating.

3. What are the advantages and disadvantages of using the software? (There are several arguments on both sides of the question. Think of as many as you can.)