Numbers often don't tell the whole story. Spoiler alert: this story has a happy ending. (The story is true; the names have been changed.) Forty-something years ago a close friend of one of the authors started bleeding early in a pregnancy. The obstetrician was not encouraging. At one of the office visits, her husband asked the doctor for more information -- not about the cause of the bleeding (that couldn't be found out) but about the probability of a healthy baby. The doctor didn't want to say. The husband pressed. Finally the doctor gave in: "five percent". What difference did knowing the number make? Surprisingly, none. The pregancy would take its course whether or not the doctor answered the husband's question.